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Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the tension triggered by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its response: an extensive attack of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.

The Pattern of Diplomacy and Destruction

The succession of conflicting incidents captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are waged: positive announcements are released from different nations. Immense energy is allocated on restraining specific proposals. By night, Russian leadership clearly shows the world that, for them, military action persists as the key method for achieving "peace".

Nighttime Reality

As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's vulnerability was laid bare. Ukraine is capable of detecting projectile deployments from Russian territory, a ability provided through up-to-date information. From observation points, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been scrambled to intercept incoming cruise missiles roared overhead – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by NATO members.

Soon thereafter, Kyiv's missile defense thundered: multiple launches deployed against a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely delivered by partner states. Every firing jolts you unexpectedly, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly gives way to sober acceptance: perhaps the incoming missile won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from catastrophe and further power outages.

Ongoing Risks

Following this, a large-caliber weapon fired at a unmanned aircraft somewhere nearby, part of a defensive team – almost certainly allied-provided weaponry. Sadly, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it maintained course toward its destination.

Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the daybreak reports: several casualties, devastation and infrastructure problems in many homes as a result of the night's assault. As customarily, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those 24 hours encapsulated Ukraine's vital need on Western support – a need that European nations are demonstrably unable to replace in the short term.

Ineffective Peace Efforts

The detailed framework from Washington generated strong feelings, discussion and profound anxiety – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.

Every new approach from Washington follows the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, effectively counters. They stabilise the situation but never actually secure success. This trend will, undoubtedly, continue.

Political Considerations

It is tempting to accuse certain parties of consistently pushing Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. Washington operates on a assumption understood by experienced diplomats: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have failed to defend militarily. The American government presumes that it is unfeasible to force Russia to abandon the land that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.

The problem is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through words or deeds, from thinking that the situation will not change more in its benefit in the coming year.

Opposing Positions

Therefore, the Kremlin is certain that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its allies are nearing depletion. Their reason to sign a deal that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is close to zero. There may be many attempts to stop fighting, but they will continue as long as Russia's leadership remains completely certain in the result.

On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still endure, progressively conceding people and territory but preventing a complete military breakdown until conditions improve in its advantage.

Present Conditions

Factually, there are no genuine requirements for a truce. Now, personal considerations are coming into play: personal goals to broker a ceasefire and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and the government's double obstacles – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the country's interests against any plan Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their priority does not shift toward homefront challenges. And although their task will now be significantly challenging after recent developments, it remains quite doubtful that this will alter their fundamental strategy.

These conflicting dynamics are driving the talks.

Assessment and Future

It took a mere seven days to eliminate the suggested clauses of the current initiative. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, opposition by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with pacifying measures of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all served their function.

While new proposals based on old ideas are approaching, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist diplomatic offensives from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate certain reluctance to change the course of events, if they remain united and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, largely rely on continued Western support.